Naira Steady, Stocks Climb: Nigeria’s Markets Defy the Odds (Oct 22, 2025)

Nigeria’s financial markets are showing signs of resilience amid ongoing economic reforms. The stock exchange kicked off October with modest gains, and the naira has stabilized slightly against the dollar. Yet, high inflation, currency pressures, and fluctuating global oil prices continue to test investor confidence. Here’s your snapshot of the key developments as of today.

Stock Market Momentum on the NGX

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index started the month on a positive note, climbing 0.19% by October 2nd. Yesterday’s session (October 21) was particularly active, with 551.9 million shares changing hands in 27,490 deals worth ₦20.5 billion.

Banking and industrial sectors are leading the charge. The banking sector benefits from a projected slowdown in loan growth to 24% by year-end (down from 50% in 2024), while industrial goods get a boost from Dangote Cement—analysts have raised their target price to ₦575 per share. Consumer goods, however, face headwinds from stubbornly high food inflation hovering at 32.7%.

Investors remain cautiously neutral, buoyed by 48% year-on-year earnings growth for listed firms over the past three years. Keep an eye on Access Holdings, which delayed its H1 2025 results filing until today, pending Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) approval.

Naira Holds Steady Amid FX Pressures

The naira traded between ₦1,475–1,478 per USD on the official market last week, a slight dip from ₦1,455 but with potential for minor recovery thanks to CBN dollar sales and easing FX demand. Parallel market spreads have narrowed, helped by mining inflows and central bank interventions.

Foreign reserves have climbed above $40 billion, and the IMF pegs Nigeria’s 2024 GDP at $253 billion—making it Africa’s 4th largest economy. Still, analysts expect further weakening pressures from global risk aversion. On a brighter note, Nigeria ranks #2 worldwide in crypto adoption, with P2P volumes exploding from $400 billion in 2024 to a projected $900 billion this year—though much of that value leaks abroad via platforms like Binance and Tron.

Macro Picture: Growth Amid Challenges

Q2 2025 GDP grew 4.23% year-on-year, with full-year forecasts at 3.7% for 2024 and 4.1% for 2025 (World Bank). Reforms like fuel subsidy removal have slashed the fiscal deficit to 4.4% in H1 2024 from 6.2% the prior year. Inflation is trending down but remains elevated, with core food prices at 32.7%. Real consumer spending has dropped 35.8% from 2019 levels, even as it’s projected to hit ₦25.7 trillion in 2025.

The CBN held rates at 27.50% in May, but an easing cycle could begin in September, potentially dropping to 25.50% by year-end. Oil exports and the Dangote Refinery should deliver a current account surplus of 3.6% of GDP, though global tariffs and insecurity in oil-producing regions remain risks.

Sector Spotlights

Energy: Post-subsidy fuel prices have surged to ₦1,100 per liter, with queues persisting in Lagos and Abuja. Indigenous players like Kenyon International are ramping up oil production.

Telecoms: MTN and MAFAB are rolling out 5G, pushing broadband penetration toward 40% (with a 90% target by year-end).

Fixed Income: The FMDQ is migrating to a new settlement process on November 3, with platform upgrades following on December 1.

Pain Points: Borrowing costs are steep (30-year bonds at 10.58%), and multinationals continue exiting due to macro instability. Social media echoes public frustration over rising debt under the Tinubu administration and crypto value draining overseas.

Looking Ahead

Reform momentum—higher FX reserves, GDP rebound, and subsidy cuts—points to gradual recovery. But inflation, insecurity, and naira volatility could derail progress. Watch the CBN’s next MPC meeting for rate signals, and stay tuned for real-time updates on gift cards and crypto via local trackers.

Markets move fast—check back for the latest.

Sources: Recent NGX reports, CBN data, IMF/World Bank forecasts, and market commentary.

Written by Gold Oyeniran